Post Velocity
Watching @DarioAmodei · posted 7h ago · sampled every 30s
Dario Amodei@DarioAmodei
New essay: The Adolescence of Machines. On what the next three years of capability gains will and will not change, and what we are doing about the parts that worry us.
posted 7h ago46.3K views319 /min at +60m
All monitored postsTotal viewscumulative impressions · sampled 30s
AccelerationSteady
−9/min²
slope of the gain rate · last 10m
Checkpoints×1.7 typical now
- +30s2,571 /min×2 typical
- +30m542 /min×2.6 typical
- +60m319 /min×1.7 typical
Shelf lifeholding at +7h
23hprojected · typical for this lane 18h
Projected reachweighted score + velocity + classifier bar · horizon 48h75% probability of clearing the bar
Why this forecastsums to 75%
- Article-lane base rateshare of article posts that clear the bar+12
- Author influence@DarioAmodei+21
- Early acceleration−9/min² · holding at +7h+3
- Quoted by @BillGatesinfluence 89+12
- Weighted score44/100+31
- Posting timevs lane median−4
Event log4 engagement events · impact = Δ views/min within 4m
| Time | Account | Event | Impact | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:47+47m |  Ethan Mollick@emollick | Replied | 71 | +93 /min |
| 12:34+34m | Larry Summers@LHSummers | Quoted | 85 | +142 /min |
| 12:24+24m |  Demis Hassabis@demishassabis | Reposted | 79 | +120 /min |
| 12:12+12m | Bill Gates@BillGates | Quoted | 89 | +65 /min |
Sampling
@sama40,351 /min at +42m · accel +2,744•
@sundarpichai11,935 /min at +18m · accel +636•
@nytimes16,970 /min first 60m · accel +1,494•
@FT11,938 /min at +48m · accel +1,047•
@MKBHD5,908 /min at +35m · accel +275•
@SecScottBessent3,263 /min first 60m · accel +256•
@amasad1,404 /min at +28m · accel +82•
@naval8,956 /min first 60m · accel +730•
@pmarca2,778 /min at +25m · accel +171•
@dwarkesh_sp643 /min first 60m · accel +53•
@gdb99.4K views first 60m · ×2.5 typical•
@patrickc65.6K views first 60m · ×2 typical•
@karpathy103.4K views first 60m · ×2 typical•
@CathieDWood83.8K views first 60m · ×1.7 typical•
@howardmarks19.1K views first 60m · ×1.8 typical•
@nikitabier21.7K views at +22m · ×3.1 typical•
@cdixon23.1K views at +30m · ×1.6 typical•
@jack79.6K views first 60m · ×1.9 typical•
@Carl_C_Icahn18.4K views first 60m · ×1.8 typical•
@garrytan207.1K views first 60m · ×1.7 typical•
@paulg10.4K views first 60m · ×1.9 typical•
@levelsio54.7K views first 60m · ×2.4 typical•
@shl60.6K views first 60m · ×2 typical•
@morganhouselpeaked at +43m · now 84 /min•
@lennysanpeaked at +56m · now 56 /min•
@Jasonpeaked at +12m · now 86 /min•
@balajispeaked at +43m · now 61 /min•
@rauchgpeaked at +24m · now 172 /min•
@bgurleypeaked at +42m · now 155 /min•
@RayDaliopeaked at +29m · now 216 /min•
@satyanadellapeaked at +29m · now 1,017 /min•
@chamathpeaked at +27m · now 236 /min•
@dhhpeaked at +19m · now 174 /min•
@tim_cookpeaked at +8m · now 3,445 /min•
@michaeljburrypeaked at +15m · now 638 /min•
@leviepeaked at +38m · now 763 /min•
@federalreservepeaked at +6m · now 2,193 /min•
@BillAckmanpeaked at +3h56m · now 215 /min•