Post Velocity
Watching @naval · posted 4h1m ago · sampled every 30s
Naval@naval
California has the ultimate privilege - a monopoly on all of the warm, dry coastline in the most powerful empire in the world.
posted 4h1m ago42.9K views319 /min at +60m
All monitored postsTotal viewscumulative impressions · sampled 30s
AccelerationSteady
+10/min²
slope of the gain rate · last 10m
Checkpoints×1.8 typical now
- +30s1,890 /min×2 typical
- +30m606 /min×2.9 typical
- +60m319 /min×1.8 typical
Shelf lifeholding at +4h1m
22hprojected · typical for this lane 9h
Projected reachweighted score + velocity + classifier bar · horizon 48h18% probability of clearing the bar
Why this forecastsums to 18%
- Text-lane base rateshare of text posts that clear the bar+5
- Author influence@naval+5
- Early acceleration+10/min² · holding at +4h1m+3
- Replied by @paulginfluence 86+3
- Weighted score30/100+6
- Posting timevs lane median−4
Event log3 engagement events · impact = Δ views/min within 4m
| Time | Account | Event | Impact | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:44+44m |  Gavin Newsom@GavinNewsom | Replied | 72 | +24 /min |
| 12:29+29m |  Balaji@balajis | Reposted | 77 | +294 /min |
| 12:14+14m | Paul Graham@paulg | Replied | 86 | +42 /min |
Sampling
@sama40,351 /min at +42m · accel +2,744•
@demishassabis16,468 /min at +35m · accel +1,091•
@sundarpichai11,935 /min at +18m · accel +636•
@nytimes16,970 /min first 60m · accel +1,494•
@FT11,938 /min at +48m · accel +1,047•
@MKBHD5,908 /min at +35m · accel +275•
@SecScottBessent3,263 /min first 60m · accel +256•
@amasad1,404 /min at +28m · accel +82•
@pmarca2,778 /min at +25m · accel +171•
@dwarkesh_sp643 /min first 60m · accel +53•
@gdb99.4K views first 60m · ×2.5 typical•
@patrickc65.6K views first 60m · ×2 typical•
@karpathy103.4K views first 60m · ×2 typical•
@emollick10.8K views first 60m · ×1.9 typical•
@CathieDWood83.8K views first 60m · ×1.7 typical•
@howardmarks19.1K views first 60m · ×1.8 typical•
@DarioAmodei46.3K views first 60m · ×1.7 typical•
@nikitabier21.7K views at +22m · ×3.1 typical•
@cdixon23.1K views at +30m · ×1.6 typical•
@jack79.6K views first 60m · ×1.9 typical•
@Carl_C_Icahn18.4K views first 60m · ×1.8 typical•
@garrytan207.1K views first 60m · ×1.7 typical•
@levelsio54.7K views first 60m · ×2.4 typical•
@shl60.6K views first 60m · ×2 typical•
@morganhouselpeaked at +43m · now 84 /min•
@lennysanpeaked at +56m · now 56 /min•
@Jasonpeaked at +12m · now 86 /min•
@rauchgpeaked at +24m · now 172 /min•
@bgurleypeaked at +42m · now 155 /min•
@RayDaliopeaked at +29m · now 216 /min•
@satyanadellapeaked at +29m · now 1,017 /min•
@chamathpeaked at +27m · now 236 /min•
@dhhpeaked at +19m · now 174 /min•
@tim_cookpeaked at +8m · now 3,445 /min•
@michaeljburrypeaked at +15m · now 638 /min•
@leviepeaked at +38m · now 763 /min•
@federalreservepeaked at +6m · now 2,193 /min•
@BillAckmanpeaked at +3h56m · now 215 /min•