Post Velocity
Watching @dwarkesh_sp · posted 2h30m ago · sampled every 30s
Dwarkesh Patel@dwarkesh_sp
New episode: three hours with the person who runs the chip export controls. Why the rules look the way they do, what they would change, and the one question they would not answer.
posted 2h30m ago19.2K views643 /min at +60m
All monitored postsTotal viewscumulative impressions · sampled 30s
AccelerationAccelerating
+53/min²
slope of the gain rate · last 10m
Checkpoints×11.6 typical now
- +30s863 /min×2 typical
- +30m91 /min×1.5 typical
- +60m643 /min×11.6 typical
Shelf lifestill rising at +2h30m
6hprojected · typical for this lane 6h
Projected reachweighted score + velocity + classifier bar · horizon 48h18% probability of clearing the bar
Why this forecastsums to 18%
- Video-lane base rateshare of video posts that clear the bar+5
- Author influence@dwarkesh_sp+5
- Early acceleration+53/min² · still rising at +2h30m+4
- Quoted by @balajisinfluence 77+3
- Weighted score23/100+4
- Posting timevs lane median−3
Event log3 engagement events · impact = Δ views/min within 4m
| Time | Account | Event | Impact | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:44+44m |  Ian Bremmer@ianbremmer | Replied | 74 | +7 /min |
| 12:31+31m | Greg Brockman@gdb | Reposted | 80 | +58 /min |
| 12:15+15m |  Balaji@balajis | Quoted | 77 | +35 /min |
Sampling
@sama40,351 /min at +42m · accel +2,744•
@demishassabis16,468 /min at +35m · accel +1,091•
@sundarpichai11,935 /min at +18m · accel +636•
@nytimes16,970 /min first 60m · accel +1,494•
@FT11,938 /min at +48m · accel +1,047•
@MKBHD5,908 /min at +35m · accel +275•
@SecScottBessent3,263 /min first 60m · accel +256•
@amasad1,404 /min at +28m · accel +82•
@naval8,956 /min first 60m · accel +730•
@pmarca2,778 /min at +25m · accel +171•
@patrickc65.6K views first 60m · ×2 typical•
@karpathy103.4K views first 60m · ×2 typical•
@emollick10.8K views first 60m · ×1.9 typical•
@CathieDWood83.8K views first 60m · ×1.7 typical•
@howardmarks19.1K views first 60m · ×1.8 typical•
@DarioAmodei46.3K views first 60m · ×1.7 typical•
@nikitabier21.7K views at +22m · ×3.1 typical•
@cdixon23.1K views at +30m · ×1.6 typical•
@jack79.6K views first 60m · ×1.9 typical•
@Carl_C_Icahn18.4K views first 60m · ×1.8 typical•
@garrytan207.1K views first 60m · ×1.7 typical•
@paulg10.4K views first 60m · ×1.9 typical•
@levelsio54.7K views first 60m · ×2.4 typical•
@shl60.6K views first 60m · ×2 typical•
@morganhouselpeaked at +43m · now 84 /min•
@lennysanpeaked at +56m · now 56 /min•
@Jasonpeaked at +12m · now 86 /min•
@rauchgpeaked at +24m · now 172 /min•
@bgurleypeaked at +42m · now 155 /min•
@RayDaliopeaked at +29m · now 216 /min•
@satyanadellapeaked at +29m · now 1,017 /min•
@chamathpeaked at +27m · now 236 /min•
@dhhpeaked at +19m · now 174 /min•
@tim_cookpeaked at +8m · now 3,445 /min•
@michaeljburrypeaked at +15m · now 638 /min•
@leviepeaked at +38m · now 763 /min•
@federalreservepeaked at +6m · now 2,193 /min•
@BillAckmanpeaked at +3h56m · now 215 /min•