Post Velocity

Watching @balajis · posted 6h ago · sampled every 30s

LIVE
Sampled 8s ago
Next sample 52s

Balaji@balajis

1/ the network state thesis, one year later. what held, what didn't, and the three things I got wrong.

posted 6h ago9.4K views61 /min at +60m

All monitored posts

Total viewscumulative impressions · sampled 30s

@VitalikButerin · reply

@naval · liked

AccelerationCooling

−1/min²

slope of the gain rate · last 10m

Checkpoints×2 typical now

+30s384 /min×2 typical
+30m111 /min×2.1 typical
+60m61 /min×2 typical

Shelf lifepeaked at +43m

7hprojected · typical for this lane 11h

Projected reachweighted score + velocity + classifier bar · horizon 48h32% probability of clearing the bar

Why this forecastsums to 32%

Thread-lane base rateshare of thread posts that clear the bar
+10
Author influence@balajis
+9
Fading velocity−1/min² · peaked at +43m
−4
Reposted by @cdixoninfluence 75
+5
Weighted score24/100
+15
Posting timevs lane median
−3

Event log3 engagement events · impact = Δ views/min within 4m

Time	Account	Event	Influence	Impact
12:43+43m	Naval@naval	Liked	91	+19 /min
12:29+29m	Vitalik Buterin@VitalikButerin	Replied	81	+4 /min
12:14+14m	Chris Dixon@cdixon	Reposted	75	+15 /min

Sampling

@sama40,351 /min at +42m · accel +2,744•
@demishassabis16,468 /min at +35m · accel +1,091•
@sundarpichai11,935 /min at +18m · accel +636•
@nytimes16,970 /min first 60m · accel +1,494•
@FT11,938 /min at +48m · accel +1,047•
@MKBHD5,908 /min at +35m · accel +275•
@SecScottBessent3,263 /min first 60m · accel +256•
@amasad1,404 /min at +28m · accel +82•
@naval8,956 /min first 60m · accel +730•
@demishassabis3,678 /min first 60m · accel +293•
@pmarca2,778 /min at +25m · accel +171•
@dwarkesh_sp643 /min first 60m · accel +53•
@gdb99.4K views first 60m · ×2.5 typical•
@patrickc65.6K views first 60m · ×2 typical•
@karpathy103.4K views first 60m · ×2 typical•
@emollick10.8K views first 60m · ×1.9 typical•
@patrickc34.6K views first 60m · ×1.8 typical•
@CathieDWood83.8K views first 60m · ×1.7 typical•
@howardmarks19.1K views first 60m · ×1.8 typical•
@DarioAmodei46.3K views first 60m · ×1.7 typical•
@nikitabier21.7K views at +22m · ×3.1 typical•
@cdixon23.1K views at +30m · ×1.6 typical•
@naval42.9K views first 60m · ×1.8 typical•
@patrickc75.5K views first 60m · ×2 typical•
@jack79.6K views first 60m · ×1.9 typical•
@Carl_C_Icahn18.4K views first 60m · ×1.8 typical•
@garrytan207.1K views first 60m · ×1.7 typical•
@paulg10.4K views first 60m · ×1.9 typical•
@levelsio54.7K views first 60m · ×2.4 typical•
@paulg23.3K views first 60m · ×2 typical•
@shl60.6K views first 60m · ×2 typical•
@morganhouselpeaked at +43m · now 84 /min•
@lennysanpeaked at +56m · now 56 /min•
@Jasonpeaked at +12m · now 86 /min•
@balajispeaked at +43m · now 61 /min•
@shlpeaked at +38m · now 110 /min•
@rauchgpeaked at +24m · now 172 /min•
@bgurleypeaked at +42m · now 155 /min•
@RayDaliopeaked at +29m · now 216 /min•
@satyanadellapeaked at +29m · now 1,017 /min•
@levelsiopeaked at +19m · now 357 /min•
@chamathpeaked at +27m · now 236 /min•
@dhhpeaked at +19m · now 174 /min•
@garrytanpeaked at +14m · now 379 /min•
@tim_cookpeaked at +8m · now 3,445 /min•
@michaeljburrypeaked at +15m · now 638 /min•
@CathieDWoodpeaked at +15m · now 382 /min•
@leviepeaked at +38m · now 763 /min•
@federalreservepeaked at +6m · now 2,193 /min•
@BillAckmanpeaked at +3h56m · now 215 /min•
@samapeaked at +53m · now 3,778 /min•

@sama40,351 /min at +42m · accel +2,744•
@demishassabis16,468 /min at +35m · accel +1,091•
@sundarpichai11,935 /min at +18m · accel +636•
@nytimes16,970 /min first 60m · accel +1,494•
@FT11,938 /min at +48m · accel +1,047•
@MKBHD5,908 /min at +35m · accel +275•
@SecScottBessent3,263 /min first 60m · accel +256•
@amasad1,404 /min at +28m · accel +82•
@naval8,956 /min first 60m · accel +730•
@demishassabis3,678 /min first 60m · accel +293•
@pmarca2,778 /min at +25m · accel +171•
@dwarkesh_sp643 /min first 60m · accel +53•
@gdb99.4K views first 60m · ×2.5 typical•
@patrickc65.6K views first 60m · ×2 typical•
@karpathy103.4K views first 60m · ×2 typical•
@emollick10.8K views first 60m · ×1.9 typical•
@patrickc34.6K views first 60m · ×1.8 typical•
@CathieDWood83.8K views first 60m · ×1.7 typical•
@howardmarks19.1K views first 60m · ×1.8 typical•
@DarioAmodei46.3K views first 60m · ×1.7 typical•
@nikitabier21.7K views at +22m · ×3.1 typical•
@cdixon23.1K views at +30m · ×1.6 typical•
@naval42.9K views first 60m · ×1.8 typical•
@patrickc75.5K views first 60m · ×2 typical•
@jack79.6K views first 60m · ×1.9 typical•
@Carl_C_Icahn18.4K views first 60m · ×1.8 typical•
@garrytan207.1K views first 60m · ×1.7 typical•
@paulg10.4K views first 60m · ×1.9 typical•
@levelsio54.7K views first 60m · ×2.4 typical•
@paulg23.3K views first 60m · ×2 typical•
@shl60.6K views first 60m · ×2 typical•
@morganhouselpeaked at +43m · now 84 /min•
@lennysanpeaked at +56m · now 56 /min•
@Jasonpeaked at +12m · now 86 /min•
@balajispeaked at +43m · now 61 /min•
@shlpeaked at +38m · now 110 /min•
@rauchgpeaked at +24m · now 172 /min•
@bgurleypeaked at +42m · now 155 /min•
@RayDaliopeaked at +29m · now 216 /min•
@satyanadellapeaked at +29m · now 1,017 /min•
@levelsiopeaked at +19m · now 357 /min•
@chamathpeaked at +27m · now 236 /min•
@dhhpeaked at +19m · now 174 /min•
@garrytanpeaked at +14m · now 379 /min•
@tim_cookpeaked at +8m · now 3,445 /min•
@michaeljburrypeaked at +15m · now 638 /min•
@CathieDWoodpeaked at +15m · now 382 /min•
@leviepeaked at +38m · now 763 /min•
@federalreservepeaked at +6m · now 2,193 /min•
@BillAckmanpeaked at +3h56m · now 215 /min•
@samapeaked at +53m · now 3,778 /min•