Post Velocity

Watching @sama · posted 2h7m ago · sampled every 30s

LIVE
Sampled 8s ago
Next sample 52s

Sam Altman@sama

5.6 sol growth is insane. the inference team has done heroic work to be able to support demand. we are going to move mountains to continue to scale, but it is possible there are some hiccups soon.

posted 2h7m ago349.0K views3,778 /min at +60m

All monitored posts

Total viewscumulative impressions · sampled 30s

@gdb · repost

@elonmusk · reply

@karpathy · liked

AccelerationCooling

−27/min²

slope of the gain rate · last 10m

Checkpoints×2 typical now

+30s16,729 /min×2 typical
+30m3,910 /min×2 typical
+60m3,778 /min×2 typical

Shelf lifepeaked at +53m

30hprojected · typical for this lane 9h

Projected reachweighted score + velocity + classifier bar · horizon 48h58% probability of clearing the bar

Why this forecastsums to 58%

Text-lane base rateshare of text posts that clear the bar
+17
Author influence@sama
+16
Fading velocity−27/min² · peaked at +53m
−7
Reposted by @gdbinfluence 80
+9
Weighted score43/100
+27
Posting timevs lane median
−4

Event log4 engagement events · impact = Δ views/min within 4m

Time	Account	Event	Influence	Impact
12:47+47m	Andrej Karpathy@karpathy	Liked	83	+386 /min
12:35+35m	Aravind Srinivas@AravSrinivas	Quoted	74	+1,220 /min
12:24+24m	Elon Musk@elonmusk	Replied	98	+270 /min
12:12+12m	Greg Brockman@gdb	Reposted	80	+1,669 /min

Sampling

@sama40,351 /min at +42m · accel +2,744•
@demishassabis16,468 /min at +35m · accel +1,091•
@sundarpichai11,935 /min at +18m · accel +636•
@nytimes16,970 /min first 60m · accel +1,494•
@FT11,938 /min at +48m · accel +1,047•
@MKBHD5,908 /min at +35m · accel +275•
@SecScottBessent3,263 /min first 60m · accel +256•
@amasad1,404 /min at +28m · accel +82•
@naval8,956 /min first 60m · accel +730•
@demishassabis3,678 /min first 60m · accel +293•
@pmarca2,778 /min at +25m · accel +171•
@dwarkesh_sp643 /min first 60m · accel +53•
@gdb99.4K views first 60m · ×2.5 typical•
@patrickc65.6K views first 60m · ×2 typical•
@karpathy103.4K views first 60m · ×2 typical•
@emollick10.8K views first 60m · ×1.9 typical•
@patrickc34.6K views first 60m · ×1.8 typical•
@CathieDWood83.8K views first 60m · ×1.7 typical•
@howardmarks19.1K views first 60m · ×1.8 typical•
@DarioAmodei46.3K views first 60m · ×1.7 typical•
@nikitabier21.7K views at +22m · ×3.1 typical•
@cdixon23.1K views at +30m · ×1.6 typical•
@naval42.9K views first 60m · ×1.8 typical•
@patrickc75.5K views first 60m · ×2 typical•
@jack79.6K views first 60m · ×1.9 typical•
@Carl_C_Icahn18.4K views first 60m · ×1.8 typical•
@garrytan207.1K views first 60m · ×1.7 typical•
@paulg10.4K views first 60m · ×1.9 typical•
@levelsio54.7K views first 60m · ×2.4 typical•
@paulg23.3K views first 60m · ×2 typical•
@shl60.6K views first 60m · ×2 typical•
@morganhouselpeaked at +43m · now 84 /min•
@lennysanpeaked at +56m · now 56 /min•
@Jasonpeaked at +12m · now 86 /min•
@balajispeaked at +43m · now 61 /min•
@shlpeaked at +38m · now 110 /min•
@rauchgpeaked at +24m · now 172 /min•
@bgurleypeaked at +42m · now 155 /min•
@RayDaliopeaked at +29m · now 216 /min•
@satyanadellapeaked at +29m · now 1,017 /min•
@levelsiopeaked at +19m · now 357 /min•
@chamathpeaked at +27m · now 236 /min•
@dhhpeaked at +19m · now 174 /min•
@garrytanpeaked at +14m · now 379 /min•
@tim_cookpeaked at +8m · now 3,445 /min•
@michaeljburrypeaked at +15m · now 638 /min•
@CathieDWoodpeaked at +15m · now 382 /min•
@leviepeaked at +38m · now 763 /min•
@federalreservepeaked at +6m · now 2,193 /min•
@BillAckmanpeaked at +3h56m · now 215 /min•
@samapeaked at +53m · now 3,778 /min•

@sama40,351 /min at +42m · accel +2,744•
@demishassabis16,468 /min at +35m · accel +1,091•
@sundarpichai11,935 /min at +18m · accel +636•
@nytimes16,970 /min first 60m · accel +1,494•
@FT11,938 /min at +48m · accel +1,047•
@MKBHD5,908 /min at +35m · accel +275•
@SecScottBessent3,263 /min first 60m · accel +256•
@amasad1,404 /min at +28m · accel +82•
@naval8,956 /min first 60m · accel +730•
@demishassabis3,678 /min first 60m · accel +293•
@pmarca2,778 /min at +25m · accel +171•
@dwarkesh_sp643 /min first 60m · accel +53•
@gdb99.4K views first 60m · ×2.5 typical•
@patrickc65.6K views first 60m · ×2 typical•
@karpathy103.4K views first 60m · ×2 typical•
@emollick10.8K views first 60m · ×1.9 typical•
@patrickc34.6K views first 60m · ×1.8 typical•
@CathieDWood83.8K views first 60m · ×1.7 typical•
@howardmarks19.1K views first 60m · ×1.8 typical•
@DarioAmodei46.3K views first 60m · ×1.7 typical•
@nikitabier21.7K views at +22m · ×3.1 typical•
@cdixon23.1K views at +30m · ×1.6 typical•
@naval42.9K views first 60m · ×1.8 typical•
@patrickc75.5K views first 60m · ×2 typical•
@jack79.6K views first 60m · ×1.9 typical•
@Carl_C_Icahn18.4K views first 60m · ×1.8 typical•
@garrytan207.1K views first 60m · ×1.7 typical•
@paulg10.4K views first 60m · ×1.9 typical•
@levelsio54.7K views first 60m · ×2.4 typical•
@paulg23.3K views first 60m · ×2 typical•
@shl60.6K views first 60m · ×2 typical•
@morganhouselpeaked at +43m · now 84 /min•
@lennysanpeaked at +56m · now 56 /min•
@Jasonpeaked at +12m · now 86 /min•
@balajispeaked at +43m · now 61 /min•
@shlpeaked at +38m · now 110 /min•
@rauchgpeaked at +24m · now 172 /min•
@bgurleypeaked at +42m · now 155 /min•
@RayDaliopeaked at +29m · now 216 /min•
@satyanadellapeaked at +29m · now 1,017 /min•
@levelsiopeaked at +19m · now 357 /min•
@chamathpeaked at +27m · now 236 /min•
@dhhpeaked at +19m · now 174 /min•
@garrytanpeaked at +14m · now 379 /min•
@tim_cookpeaked at +8m · now 3,445 /min•
@michaeljburrypeaked at +15m · now 638 /min•
@CathieDWoodpeaked at +15m · now 382 /min•
@leviepeaked at +38m · now 763 /min•
@federalreservepeaked at +6m · now 2,193 /min•
@BillAckmanpeaked at +3h56m · now 215 /min•
@samapeaked at +53m · now 3,778 /min•