Post Velocity
Watching @patrickc · posted 1h35m ago · sampled every 30s
Patrick Collison@patrickc
Stripe processed more volume in the last 24 hours than in all of 2014. Most of it from businesses that did not exist in 2014. The compounding is the point.
posted 1h35m ago65.6K views525 /min at +60m
All monitored postsTotal viewscumulative impressions · sampled 30s
AccelerationSteady
+8/min²
slope of the gain rate · last 10m
Checkpoints×2 typical now
- +30s3,103 /min×2 typical
- +30m720 /min×2.4 typical
- +60m525 /min×2 typical
Shelf lifeholding at +1h35m
16hprojected · typical for this lane 9h
Projected reachweighted score + velocity + classifier bar · horizon 48h26% probability of clearing the bar
Why this forecastsums to 26%
- Text-lane base rateshare of text posts that clear the bar+8
- Author influence@patrickc+7
- Early acceleration+8/min² · holding at +1h35m+3
- Quoted by @elonmuskinfluence 98+4
- Weighted score69/100+6
- Posting timevs lane median−2
Event log5 engagement events · impact = Δ views/min within 4m
| Time | Account | Event | Impact | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:48+48m | Jack Dorsey@jack | Liked | 88 | +62 /min |
| 12:39+39m |  Aaron Levie@levie | Reposted | 72 | +121 /min |
| 12:31+31m | Paul Graham@paulg | Replied | 89 | +513 /min |
| 12:19+19m | Naval@naval | Reposted | 91 | +382 /min |
| 12:11+11m | Elon Musk@elonmusk | Quoted | 98 | +105 /min |
Sampling
@sama40,351 /min at +42m · accel +2,744•
@demishassabis16,468 /min at +35m · accel +1,091•
@sundarpichai11,935 /min at +18m · accel +636•
@nytimes16,970 /min first 60m · accel +1,494•
@FT11,938 /min at +48m · accel +1,047•
@MKBHD5,908 /min at +35m · accel +275•
@SecScottBessent3,263 /min first 60m · accel +256•
@amasad1,404 /min at +28m · accel +82•
@pmarca2,778 /min at +25m · accel +171•
@dwarkesh_sp643 /min first 60m · accel +53•
@gdb99.4K views first 60m · ×2.5 typical•
@karpathy103.4K views first 60m · ×2 typical•
@emollick10.8K views first 60m · ×1.9 typical•
@CathieDWood83.8K views first 60m · ×1.7 typical•
@howardmarks19.1K views first 60m · ×1.8 typical•
@DarioAmodei46.3K views first 60m · ×1.7 typical•
@nikitabier21.7K views at +22m · ×3.1 typical•
@cdixon23.1K views at +30m · ×1.6 typical•
@Carl_C_Icahn18.4K views first 60m · ×1.8 typical•
@garrytan207.1K views first 60m · ×1.7 typical•
@levelsio54.7K views first 60m · ×2.4 typical•
@shl60.6K views first 60m · ×2 typical•
@morganhouselpeaked at +43m · now 84 /min•
@lennysanpeaked at +56m · now 56 /min•
@Jasonpeaked at +12m · now 86 /min•
@balajispeaked at +43m · now 61 /min•
@rauchgpeaked at +24m · now 172 /min•
@bgurleypeaked at +42m · now 155 /min•
@RayDaliopeaked at +29m · now 216 /min•
@satyanadellapeaked at +29m · now 1,017 /min•
@chamathpeaked at +27m · now 236 /min•
@dhhpeaked at +19m · now 174 /min•
@tim_cookpeaked at +8m · now 3,445 /min•
@michaeljburrypeaked at +15m · now 638 /min•
@federalreservepeaked at +6m · now 2,193 /min•
@BillAckmanpeaked at +3h56m · now 215 /min•