Post Velocity

Watching @karpathy · posted 2h10m ago · sampled every 30s

LIVE
Sampled 8s ago
Next sample 52s

Andrej Karpathy@karpathy

a 20-min walkthrough of tokenisation from scratch. no libraries, no slides, just the byte pairs. this is the part of LLMs most people skip and it explains more weird behaviour than anything else.

posted 2h10m ago103.4K views787 /min at +60m

All monitored posts

Total viewscumulative impressions · sampled 30s

@gdb · repost

@sama · liked

@lexfridman · quoted

AccelerationSteady

−15/min²

slope of the gain rate · last 10m

Checkpoints×2 typical now

+30s3,679 /min×2 typical
+30m835 /min×1.5 typical
+60m787 /min×2 typical

Shelf lifeholding at +2h10m

12hprojected · typical for this lane 6h

Projected reachweighted score + velocity + classifier bar · horizon 48h67% probability of clearing the bar

Why this forecastsums to 67%

Video-lane base rateshare of video posts that clear the bar
+16
Author influence@karpathy
+19
Early acceleration−15/min² · holding at +2h10m
+3
Reposted by @gdbinfluence 80
+11
Weighted score49/100
+22
Posting timevs lane median
−4

Event log4 engagement events · impact = Δ views/min within 4m

Time	Account	Event	Influence	Impact
12:48+48m	swyx@swyx	Replied	66	+331 /min
12:36+36m	Lex Fridman@lexfridman	Quoted	82	+309 /min
12:23+23m	Sam Altman@sama	Liked	84	+258 /min
12:11+11m	Greg Brockman@gdb	Reposted	80	+97 /min

Sampling

@sama40,351 /min at +42m · accel +2,744•
@demishassabis16,468 /min at +35m · accel +1,091•
@sundarpichai11,935 /min at +18m · accel +636•
@nytimes16,970 /min first 60m · accel +1,494•
@FT11,938 /min at +48m · accel +1,047•
@MKBHD5,908 /min at +35m · accel +275•
@SecScottBessent3,263 /min first 60m · accel +256•
@amasad1,404 /min at +28m · accel +82•
@naval8,956 /min first 60m · accel +730•
@demishassabis3,678 /min first 60m · accel +293•
@pmarca2,778 /min at +25m · accel +171•
@dwarkesh_sp643 /min first 60m · accel +53•
@gdb99.4K views first 60m · ×2.5 typical•
@patrickc65.6K views first 60m · ×2 typical•
@karpathy103.4K views first 60m · ×2 typical•
@emollick10.8K views first 60m · ×1.9 typical•
@patrickc34.6K views first 60m · ×1.8 typical•
@CathieDWood83.8K views first 60m · ×1.7 typical•
@howardmarks19.1K views first 60m · ×1.8 typical•
@DarioAmodei46.3K views first 60m · ×1.7 typical•
@nikitabier21.7K views at +22m · ×3.1 typical•
@cdixon23.1K views at +30m · ×1.6 typical•
@naval42.9K views first 60m · ×1.8 typical•
@patrickc75.5K views first 60m · ×2 typical•
@jack79.6K views first 60m · ×1.9 typical•
@Carl_C_Icahn18.4K views first 60m · ×1.8 typical•
@garrytan207.1K views first 60m · ×1.7 typical•
@paulg10.4K views first 60m · ×1.9 typical•
@levelsio54.7K views first 60m · ×2.4 typical•
@paulg23.3K views first 60m · ×2 typical•
@shl60.6K views first 60m · ×2 typical•
@morganhouselpeaked at +43m · now 84 /min•
@lennysanpeaked at +56m · now 56 /min•
@Jasonpeaked at +12m · now 86 /min•
@balajispeaked at +43m · now 61 /min•
@shlpeaked at +38m · now 110 /min•
@rauchgpeaked at +24m · now 172 /min•
@bgurleypeaked at +42m · now 155 /min•
@RayDaliopeaked at +29m · now 216 /min•
@satyanadellapeaked at +29m · now 1,017 /min•
@levelsiopeaked at +19m · now 357 /min•
@chamathpeaked at +27m · now 236 /min•
@dhhpeaked at +19m · now 174 /min•
@garrytanpeaked at +14m · now 379 /min•
@tim_cookpeaked at +8m · now 3,445 /min•
@michaeljburrypeaked at +15m · now 638 /min•
@CathieDWoodpeaked at +15m · now 382 /min•
@leviepeaked at +38m · now 763 /min•
@federalreservepeaked at +6m · now 2,193 /min•
@BillAckmanpeaked at +3h56m · now 215 /min•
@samapeaked at +53m · now 3,778 /min•

@sama40,351 /min at +42m · accel +2,744•
@demishassabis16,468 /min at +35m · accel +1,091•
@sundarpichai11,935 /min at +18m · accel +636•
@nytimes16,970 /min first 60m · accel +1,494•
@FT11,938 /min at +48m · accel +1,047•
@MKBHD5,908 /min at +35m · accel +275•
@SecScottBessent3,263 /min first 60m · accel +256•
@amasad1,404 /min at +28m · accel +82•
@naval8,956 /min first 60m · accel +730•
@demishassabis3,678 /min first 60m · accel +293•
@pmarca2,778 /min at +25m · accel +171•
@dwarkesh_sp643 /min first 60m · accel +53•
@gdb99.4K views first 60m · ×2.5 typical•
@patrickc65.6K views first 60m · ×2 typical•
@karpathy103.4K views first 60m · ×2 typical•
@emollick10.8K views first 60m · ×1.9 typical•
@patrickc34.6K views first 60m · ×1.8 typical•
@CathieDWood83.8K views first 60m · ×1.7 typical•
@howardmarks19.1K views first 60m · ×1.8 typical•
@DarioAmodei46.3K views first 60m · ×1.7 typical•
@nikitabier21.7K views at +22m · ×3.1 typical•
@cdixon23.1K views at +30m · ×1.6 typical•
@naval42.9K views first 60m · ×1.8 typical•
@patrickc75.5K views first 60m · ×2 typical•
@jack79.6K views first 60m · ×1.9 typical•
@Carl_C_Icahn18.4K views first 60m · ×1.8 typical•
@garrytan207.1K views first 60m · ×1.7 typical•
@paulg10.4K views first 60m · ×1.9 typical•
@levelsio54.7K views first 60m · ×2.4 typical•
@paulg23.3K views first 60m · ×2 typical•
@shl60.6K views first 60m · ×2 typical•
@morganhouselpeaked at +43m · now 84 /min•
@lennysanpeaked at +56m · now 56 /min•
@Jasonpeaked at +12m · now 86 /min•
@balajispeaked at +43m · now 61 /min•
@shlpeaked at +38m · now 110 /min•
@rauchgpeaked at +24m · now 172 /min•
@bgurleypeaked at +42m · now 155 /min•
@RayDaliopeaked at +29m · now 216 /min•
@satyanadellapeaked at +29m · now 1,017 /min•
@levelsiopeaked at +19m · now 357 /min•
@chamathpeaked at +27m · now 236 /min•
@dhhpeaked at +19m · now 174 /min•
@garrytanpeaked at +14m · now 379 /min•
@tim_cookpeaked at +8m · now 3,445 /min•
@michaeljburrypeaked at +15m · now 638 /min•
@CathieDWoodpeaked at +15m · now 382 /min•
@leviepeaked at +38m · now 763 /min•
@federalreservepeaked at +6m · now 2,193 /min•
@BillAckmanpeaked at +3h56m · now 215 /min•
@samapeaked at +53m · now 3,778 /min•