Post Velocity
Watching @paulg · posted 2h10m ago · sampled every 30s
Paul Graham@paulg
The most common mistake in YC applications is describing the market before the user. Tell me the one person who desperately wants this. If you can't name them, the market size is zero.
posted 2h10m ago23.3K views166 /min at +60m
All monitored postsTotal viewscumulative impressions · sampled 30s
AccelerationSteady
−3/min²
slope of the gain rate · last 10m
Checkpoints×2 typical now
- +30s871 /min×2 typical
- +30m181 /min×1.4 typical
- +60m166 /min×2 typical
Shelf lifeholding at +2h10m
20hprojected · typical for this lane 18h
Projected reachweighted score + velocity + classifier bar · horizon 48h94% probability of clearing the bar
Why this forecastsums to 94%
- Article-lane base rateshare of article posts that clear the bar+12
- Author influence@paulg+26
- Early acceleration−3/min² · holding at +2h10m+3
- Quoted by @garrytaninfluence 76+15
- Weighted score52/100+41
- Posting timevs lane median−3
Event log3 engagement events · impact = Δ views/min within 4m
| Time | Account | Event | Impact | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:44+44m | Patrick Collison@patrickc | Replied | 82 | +10 /min |
| 12:31+31m | Sam Altman@sama | Reposted | 84 | +147 /min |
| 12:16+16m |  Garry Tan@garrytan | Quoted | 76 | +120 /min |
Sampling
@demishassabis16,468 /min at +35m · accel +1,091•
@sundarpichai11,935 /min at +18m · accel +636•
@nytimes16,970 /min first 60m · accel +1,494•
@FT11,938 /min at +48m · accel +1,047•
@MKBHD5,908 /min at +35m · accel +275•
@SecScottBessent3,263 /min first 60m · accel +256•
@amasad1,404 /min at +28m · accel +82•
@naval8,956 /min first 60m · accel +730•
@pmarca2,778 /min at +25m · accel +171•
@dwarkesh_sp643 /min first 60m · accel +53•
@gdb99.4K views first 60m · ×2.5 typical•
@karpathy103.4K views first 60m · ×2 typical•
@emollick10.8K views first 60m · ×1.9 typical•
@CathieDWood83.8K views first 60m · ×1.7 typical•
@howardmarks19.1K views first 60m · ×1.8 typical•
@DarioAmodei46.3K views first 60m · ×1.7 typical•
@nikitabier21.7K views at +22m · ×3.1 typical•
@cdixon23.1K views at +30m · ×1.6 typical•
@jack79.6K views first 60m · ×1.9 typical•
@Carl_C_Icahn18.4K views first 60m · ×1.8 typical•
@levelsio54.7K views first 60m · ×2.4 typical•
@shl60.6K views first 60m · ×2 typical•
@morganhouselpeaked at +43m · now 84 /min•
@lennysanpeaked at +56m · now 56 /min•
@Jasonpeaked at +12m · now 86 /min•
@balajispeaked at +43m · now 61 /min•
@rauchgpeaked at +24m · now 172 /min•
@bgurleypeaked at +42m · now 155 /min•
@RayDaliopeaked at +29m · now 216 /min•
@satyanadellapeaked at +29m · now 1,017 /min•
@chamathpeaked at +27m · now 236 /min•
@dhhpeaked at +19m · now 174 /min•
@tim_cookpeaked at +8m · now 3,445 /min•
@michaeljburrypeaked at +15m · now 638 /min•
@leviepeaked at +38m · now 763 /min•
@federalreservepeaked at +6m · now 2,193 /min•
@BillAckmanpeaked at +3h56m · now 215 /min•